As California sues over Donald Trump tariffs, independent producers ponder uncertain future

California Governor Gavin Newsom filed a lawsuit on Wednesday over what he called US president Donald Trump’s unlawful use of emergency powers to impose tariffs that were “wreaking chaos” on the state’s families, businesses and economy.

As California became the first state to sue over the tariffs, Newsom and the state’s attorney general Rob Bonta claimed only Congress has the authority to allow federal agencies and the White House to make sweeping policy decisions of “vast economic and political significance”. The Governor noted that levies would have “an outsized impact” on the world’s fifth largest economy and its international trade partners.

Having imposed a universal 10% tariff on most imported goods and reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries, only to pause the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days and increase retaliatory tariffs on China to 145%, Trump’s declarations have left sectors, including independent film producers, reeling.

Heading into Cannes, Screen has spoken to a handful of prominent independent producers and individuals involved in production who all preferred to speak on background and professed to having little clue as to how the evolving situation will affect their businesses. Amid ongoing uncertainty Producers Guild Of America, through its representatives, declined to comment.

One veteran filmmaker described the situation as potentially ”one of the most destructive scenarios I have seen”. They said the lack of clarity from the US administration threatened to exacerbate the pain caused by the rise of streaming, a global pandemic, twin Hollywood strikes, and a slow start to the year when the Los Angeles wildfires impacted US packaging for the EFM in Berlin.

No-one expressed confidence in gaming out how tariffs might impact filmmaking once the US administration negotiates trade agreements with individual countries.

Two sources speculated US productions that shoot outside the country might in theory avoid levies on importing goods and materials into the United States for production. Another producer was unsure if tariffs would have any “significant impact” on the cost of goods for US-based shoots. Two others opined that currency fluctuations might motivate American producers to keep productions in the United States. 

A tumbling US dollar, not to mention the sell-off of US Treasury bonds and plummeting tech stocks, could augur a long-lasting loss of faith in US assets. “All we can hope is it helps pre-sales,” said one producer, arguing that the weaker dollar will entice international buyers transacting with US sales agents. Conversely, US buyers dealing with international sellers could end up paying more.

High costs within the United States and competitive international production incentives have assailed the local production sector, compounding the gloom.

For decades runaway productions have fled to Canada and, increasingly, the rest of the world. Atlanta, Georgia, has seen a considerable amount of its traditional business with Marvel Studios relocate to places like the UK – where principal photography recently began on Avengers: Doomsday. Summer release The Fantastic Four: First Steps shot at Pinewood Studios last year, and the fourth Tom Holland Spider-Man is scheduled to shoot there later this year.

In an ongoing bid to prop up in-state production, Governor Newsom has proposed to more than double the California’s annual film and television incentive allocation from $330m to $750m, while California lawmakers are debating an increase in the tax credit from 20% or 25% in some cases to 35%. Sources would like to see proposals to qualify above the line costs, a highly attractive element that is the case in places like the UK and Italy.

Production in the Greater Los Angeles area has been declining. This week FilmLA reported overall production declined by 22.4% in the first quarter of 2025, with feature production dropping 28.9% to 451 shoot days in the January to March period. In January the film said that 2024 was the second least productive year behind Covid-afflicted 2020.

How the Trump administration’s tariffs influence the independent sector remains to be seen. ”There will be an impact,” one producer said. ”What that is is up for grabs.”

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