Choppy US Q1 box office has industry hoping for calmer waters

This year has been touted as the return of North American box office after years of disruption by Covid and Hollywood strikes. With major tentpoles planned for the months ahead, studio executives and cinema operators — who will soon gather for the annual Las Vegas trade convention CinemaCon (March 31-April 3) — are hoping for a $9bn-plus annual gross after $8.6bn last year.

However, long before Tom Cruise thrills in Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning, the dinosaurs roar in Jurassic World Rebirth, and audiences return to Pandora in Avatar: Fire And Ash and the Emerald city in Wicked: For Good, there is the matter of a choppy first quarter. By March 24, year-to-date box office trailed 2024 at the same stage by 7% – way down from the 21% lead in mid-February.

The weekend release of Snow White delivered a highly disappointing $42.2m number one bow, the latest in a dispiriting sequence of low-grossing weekends in the first quarter that have trailed their 2024 counterparts. There is the gloomy realisation that nothing has excelled yet.

The Snow White debut will concern Disney executives given the reported $270m cost in addition to a reported $100m in marketing. The studio hopes the remake of a little-known property among younger audiences, which arrived under the weight of bad press over political comments by leads Rachel Zegler and Gal Gadot and debates involving wokeism and the dwarfism community, will find its rhythm in the weeks ahead. After all, these executives like to remind, Mufasa opened on $35m in December and went on to earn more than $250m in North America and $720m worldwide.

Still, the industry is craning its necks for an uptick and looks towards a steady cadence of tentpoles, smaller films and hoped-for breakouts to deliver results in the coming months. Paul Dergarabedian, Comscore’s senior media analyst, told Screen in mid-March: “The best way to assess the overall performance of the theatrical marketplace is to take a broad view rather than allow a few lacklustre weeks to spark negative pronouncements of the long-term health of the entire industry.”

The highest-grossing release so far, Disney/Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World, stood at a relatively modest $192m after six weekends. The tentpole opened top on just above $100m over February 14-17, ranking fourth in the pantheon of four-day Presidents’ Day releases behind three Marvel Cinematic Universe siblings.

Brave New World opened to mixed reviews and audiences may have struggled to adjust to a new actor, Anthony Mackie, in the title role after years of Chris Evans. The film is tracking behind franchise champion Captain America: Civil War from 2016, which stood at an unadjusted $396.9m by the same stage of release, and reached $408.1m domestically over its lifetime.

Family ties

Three of the top five releases for the year-to-date are family films that opened in 2024 (see chart), led by Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King, which has grossed $125.6m of its $253.8m cumulative tally in 2025. As noted, the prequel rallied well after a soft start, although it is far short of The Lion King’s $543m in 2019. It will have played exclusively in theatres for 96 days before the Disney+ debut on Wednesday (March 26) — a long window that pleases exhibitors.

In third place for the year so far is Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man, budgeted at $40m and based on Dav Pilkey’s series of graphic novels, with a profitable $95.6m to date. In fourth is Sonic The Hedgehog 3, which including its 2024 haul has delivered a franchise-best $236.1m for Paramount in North America.

Sony’s female buddy comedy One Of Them Days delivered a surprise number-two debut in January over the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend and stood at $49.6m at press time, while Focus Features is celebrating Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu. The vampire remake opened in December and has earned half of its $95.6m haul in 2025.

Warner Bros and Plan B executives will not be thrilled with $40m for the first 17 days for Bong Joon Ho’s Parasite follow-up Mickey 17, starring Robert Pattinson. In fairness, the film is based on relatively unfamiliar IP (Edward Ashton’s 2022 novel) and had been in theatres for just over three weeks at time of writing. Yet a reported $118m price-tag suggests a struggle for the stakeholders to achieve profitability.

Neon has enjoyed a robust $37.8m running total for Osgood Perkins’ The Monkey, which opened on $14m to deliver the company’s second-highest opening weekend ever behind the $22.4m of Perkins’ Longlegs. The new release has posted the best horror opening of 2025 from a crowded field including Sony’s Heart Eyes, Warner Bros’ Companion, Universal/Blumhouse’s Wolf Man, and Neon’s Presence.

And after a dismal run in 2024, Lionsgate is off to an encouraging start. Den Of Thieves 2: Pantera opened top in mid-January on $15m and has gone on to $36m, although that is below the original film’s $44.9m domestic total. Flight Risk has earned $29.8m to date.

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