UPDATED Jan 3 with new ComScore and Disney figures: The 2022 North American box office finished on $7.5bn according to ComScore, marking a 64% gain on 2021 fuelled by Paramount’s Top Gun: Maverick, Disney/20th Century Studios/Lightstorm’s Avatar: The Way of Water and other sequels from Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther and Doctor Strange and Universal’s Jurassic franchises.
The year-end aggregated gross (which will increase slightly once residual grosses are added in) easily outpaces 2021’s $4.57bn and represents a 229% rise on 2020’s $2.28bn annual haul. Yet an overall dearth of wide releases in addition to November and December lulls with the exceptions of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Avatar: The Way Of Water kept ticket sales down.
Comparisons with pre-pandemic times (2019 recorded $11.39bn and 2018 remains the record holder on $11.92bn) are somewhat specious given how entertainment sector disruption over the past three years has shaped a new landscape, although comments from some big media leaders and the easing of the production logjam offer hope for the theatrical business in 2023 and beyond.
Analyst Gower Street has predicted North American box office will reach $8.6bn in 2023. An upwards trajectory and a conveyor belt of upcoming tentpoles promising to restore the frequency of wide releases is to be welcomed, even as Hollywood frets over the fate of theatrical films aimed at adult audiences, which had a dismal year in 2022.
Looking at the 2022 top five leaderboard, Maverick earned top spot with a $719m final tally followed by Black Panther: Wakanda Forever on $436m, Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness on $411m, Avatar: The Way of Water on $401m, Universal’s Jurassic World: Dominion on $376m (as of December 30), and Universal/Illumination’s Minions: The Rise Of Gru on $370m (as of December 30).
The Way Of Water will surpass all of this year’s releases except Top Gun: Maverick in early 2023 and should end up as the second highest grossing film released in 2022. It is also one of only three Hollywood films that grossed more than $1bn globally, alongside Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World: Dominion.
Studio report card
2022 was an excellent year for Paramount Pictures, which held back Top Gun: Maverick as a theatrical release despite early discussions to send it to streaming. Star and producer Tom Cruise was a persuasive voice in how the tentpole was released, as was David Ellison of co-financier Skydance Media. The studio also enjoyed success with Sonic The Hedgehog 2 ($190.9m) Jackass: The Movie ($60.3), The Lost City ($105.3m), Smile ($105.9m), and Scream ($81.6m) Damien Chazelle’s Babylon has been the sole flop on $7.4m and counting.
Disney is in a state of flux after the shock ouster of CEO Bob Chapek which ushered in the return of Bob Iger. The latter’s upcoming two-year tenure (that could change as Iger has been known to postpone his retirements) could augur a more settled approach to how Disney distributes its films after the jumbled model of the Chapek years. Nonetheless the studio delivered impressive theatrical results for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Doctor Strange In The Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love And Thunder ($343.3m).
Toy Story spin-off Lightyear, despite being the first Pixar film to debut exclusively in cinemas since Onward in the unfortunate slot of March 2020, was a relative flop on $118.3m. This may have been a result of lacklustre reviews as well as a readiness among audiences to wait until it dropped on Disney+ after Chapek sent Turning Red straight to streaming in March, as he did with Luca in 2021 and Soul in 2020. Animation Strange World also disappointed on $36.5m.
Universal had a strong year with Jurassic World: Dominion, Minions: The Rise Of Gru, as well as Jordan Peele’s Nope on $123.3m. The Black Phone earned $89.9m, Halloween Ends took $64.1m, and Ticket To Paradise managed $68.2m, an encouraging theatrical result for an adult-oriented rom-com which reunited Julia Roberts and George Clooney. Gay rom-com Bros underperformed on $11.6m.
Spy thriller The 355 managed $11.6m through Universal – one of four major Hollywood studio acquisition titles that underperformed this year, alongside Lionsgate release Moonfall on $19.1m, MGM/UAR release Three Thousand Years Of Longing on $8.3m, and Sony release Devotion on $19.6m.
Sony otherwise delivered a solid year. It should be noted that Spider-Man: No Way Home played well into 2022 and earned nearly $200m of its $814.1m final North American gross in the first half of the year. Bullet Train grossed $103.4m, Where The Crawdads Sing took an excellent $90.2m, and The Woman King has grossed a promising $67.2m and remains in the awards conversation. The studio’s big flop was comic book adaptation Morbius on $73.9m.
Emerging from 2021, when former WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar incensed Hollywood’s creatives when he sent all Warner Bros films to HBO Max day-and-date with their theatrical releases, the studio burst out of the gate with $369.3m hit The Batman. Baz Luhrmann’s awards contender Elvis was also on song, earning $151m. New Line’s Don’t Worry Darling took a so-so $45.3m despite mild controversy and a disastrous media strategy involving director Olivia Wilde.
However Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets Of Dumbledore flopped on $95.9m, and later in the year Dwayne Johnson’s passion project Black Adam delivered a disappointing $167.9m, prompting DC Studios co-head James Gunn to declare there are no immediate plans to continue with the franchise.
These were the studio’s main talking points of a turbulent year in which Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) acquired WarnerMedia and new CEO David Zaslav gave Kilar the boot. Zaslav is bullish about theatrical, particularly tentpoles, although he has shown his ruthless side as he implements cost-savings and consigned Batgirl, a film that was nearly completed, to the scrapheap along with several others.
Arguably the year’s biggest breakout was A24’s sci-fi fantasy Everything Everywhere All At Once from the Daniels starring Michelle Yeoh. It finished on $70m in North America and became A24’s first $100m+ worldwide hit.
Prestige films suffer
However films for adult audiences largely suffered, due in no small part to lingering reluctance among the older crowd to return to cinemas, particularly during the winter months amid Covid surges, and the challenge of making noise around releases.
Competing with major studios’ marketing spend and securing screens is no small feat. Embattled exhibitors eager for content have been willing to accommodate smaller films amid a shortage of product, however in general the audiences have not shown up and screen availability will only get harder in 2023 as the production logjam has eased and more tentpoles are ready to roll out.
Searchlight Pictures’ The Menu has been a success on more than $35m yet others – including stablemate The Banshees Of Inisherin from Martin McDonagh on $8.9m – have not fared well, despite studio backing, international festival acclaim, and awards season buzz. Truly independent distributors have found it very tough going.
At time of writing Universal’s The Fabelmans, a frontrunner for the best picture Oscar alongside heavyweight contenders like Everything Everywhere All At Once and Top Gun: Maverick, bombed at the box office on $11.1m despite an ecstatic world premiere at Toronto and strong reviews for Steven Spielberg’s latest film. Stablemate and #MeToo drama She Said disappointed on $5.8m.
Focus Features’ highly regarded Venice premiere TÁR starring lead actress Oscar contender Cate Blanchett took $5.5m and James Gray’s Cannes premiere Armageddon Time grossed $1.9m. UAR’s Venice premiere Bones And All directed by Luca Guadagnino and starring Timothée Chalamet managed $7.8m, while stablemate Till stands at just over $9m.
Ruben Ostlund’s Cannes Palme d’Or winner Triangle Of Sadness from Neon grossed a lacklustre $4.1m and Amsterdam from Disney/20th Century Studios earned $14.9m, in stark contrast to most of David O. Russell’s awards season releases of the past decade like American Hustle ($150.1m, 2013) and Silver Linings Playbook ($132.1m, 2012). Even Joy, one of Russell’s less popular films, earned over $50m in 2015.
Looking at the 2023 tentpoles, the line-up includes Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania, Creed III, Shazam! Fury Of The Gods, John Wick 4, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse, and Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny.
Anticipated tentpoles for the second half of the year include Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, Barbie, The Meg 2, Dune: Part 2, Hunger Games: The Ballad Of Songbirds And Snakes, Wonka, and Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom.
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