Australian box office poised to fall 20-25% in 2022 compared to pre-pandemic 2019

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Elvis

Source: Warner Bros

‘Elvis’

The total Australian box office for 2022 is on course to fall by 20-25% compared to pre-pandemic 2019, which saw receipts hit $872m (A$1.289bn), according to preliminary figures from Comscore. 2019 was the third biggest year in history after 2016 and 2018.

The first nine months of 2022 from January 1 to September 30 saw box office receipts down 19% to $486m (A$718.6m) compared to the same period in 2019. There was a slightly steeper decline of 21% compared to 2019 for October and November.

All eyes are now on releases in December, led by Disney’s Avatar: The Way Of Water, which opens today (December 15). It is followed by Universal’s Puss In Boots: The Last Wish, Transmission’s The Lost King, Disney’s The Banshees Of Inisherin and Sharmill’s Triangle Of Sadness, all of which open on 26 December.

A strong performance from the Avatar sequel has already been factored in to the 2022 figures, according to Frank Perikleous, Comscore’s vice president of movies for Asia Pacific and Australia.

Pre-booking figures for what is a highly anticipated release had been sluggish before picking up in recent days, according to Mike Vile, head of film programming for Australia and New Zealand at Australian exhibitor Reading Entertainment.

“People are not planning ahead as they used to,” he suggested.

One bright spot of 2022 has been the 20% rise in admissions in the mid-year May to July period compared to the 2017-2019 average during the same three winter months. This was driven by the release of three franchise titles: Paramount’s Top Gun: Maverick; Disney’s Thor: Love And Thunder; and Universal’s Minions: The Rise Of Gru.

“We are confident that we have not seen major behavioural shifts, rather we have seen audience demand driven by the volume of releases in the market, which has been fewer due to the pandemic,” said Mike Baard, managing director of Universal Pictures International Australasia. “With a release slate returning close to pre-Covid levels and the proof in 2022 that audiences have lost none of their love of cinema, we are cautiously optimistic.”

One reason the exhibitor is upbeat about 2023 is the expectation that films will be better spaced: “Everything came in on top of each other in June and July and money was left on the table,” said Vile. “Then there were long periods with nothing coming out.”

Independent daze

Reading is a resolutely mainstream circuit, but for one of its 26 sites: The State in Tasmania. That venue’s top films in 2022 were Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount), Elvis (Warner Bros), Belfast (Universal), Where The Crawdads Sing (Universal) and local documentary Franklin (Screen Inc).

There was much talk mid-year in Australia that the fortunes of major exhibition chains and blockbusters improved more quickly than those of specialist cinemas and independent films, including documentaries, once cinemas reopened as lockdowns were fully lifted for 2022.

One explanation was that audiences saw entertainment and event-style fare as the best escape from reality, and this fit with reports that people were leaning towards upscale cinemas and spending more than usual on food and beverages. Others believed older audiences - who will usually take a risk on more challenging fare - had the most social wariness.

Now the whole industry is focussed on ensuring audiences have a good experience to attract cinemagoers back to the habit.

Kristian Connelly, chief executive of Melbourne’s Cinema Nova, one of the most successful cinemas in the country, said he is now particularly careful with his messaging: guiding customers’ choices and being sure to clearly contextualise films.

“What we’re seeing now is the ramifications of a production slowdown,” he said. “Smaller films that come along and are read as having the opportunity to cross over are going on to double or triple the number of screens [than they would have pre-Covid].”

As examples, he cites recent films The Menu (Walt Disney) and Bones And All (Universal): “They’re on every cinema in our catchment because there’s so few good films around,” he added.

When this shortage was on the horizon, he skewed the programme mix to suit an audience a little younger than Nova’s pre-pandemic patrons. This included more genre films such as Barbarian (Disney) and Bodies Bodies Bodies (Sony), which both did well.

“Venues that focus on older audiences and have courted them exclusively would be suffering,” he explained. ”Mrs Harris Goes to Paris (Universal) performed strongly but, again, it’s spread across so many cinemas … We’re also running a great many more special events and retrospective and cult screenings.”

Everything Everywhere All At Once, released in Australia by Roadshow, has become Nova’s sixth biggest film of all time. It has been on release for 33 weeks throughout 2022.

“Inevitably the production slowdown will ease and we’ll start to get more great international product,” Connelly predicted.

Local heroes

The stand-out Australian film in 2022 was Warner Bros’ Elvis, which was directed by Australia’s Baz Luhrmann (thus helping it qualify as Australian) and was shot in Australia by an Australian crew.

No other homegrown film sold more than $2m (A$3m) worth of tickets. The biggest performers were Wog Boys Forever (Kismet, $1.97m/A$2.92m), followed by How To Please A Woman (Madman, $1.5m/A$2.3m) and The Drovers Wife: The Legend Of Molly Johnson (Roadshow, $1.25m/A$1.85m).

Ahead of the release of Avatar: The Way Of Water, the top 10 films of 2022 had grossed $264m (A$390m). This compares to the $295m (A$436m) grossed by the top 10 films of 2019. The biggest contributor, Top Gun: Maverick, took more than twice any other film.