Fuelled by a strong first quarter and the powerhouse performance of Universal/Illumination’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie driving a mighty start to the second quarter, film data and insights company Gower Street Analytics has increased its early global box office estimate by 10% from $29bn to $32bn.
The announcement comes as the global industry prepares to gather in Las Vegas for CinemaCon this week, running April 24-27.
A $32bn global box office for this year would represent an approximate +23% gain on 2022. It would still be an average of 20% behind the last three pre-pandemic years (2017- 2019).
And while North American Q1 box office finished below Gower Street’s projection by $100m, the analyst has increased its annual projection by $400m to $9bn.
China sees a larger increase from $5.6bn to $6.8bn. Following a disappointing 2022 Gower Street’s early estimates for China remained conservative. The territory showed stronger recovery in Q1 than expected, including a solid Chinese New Year period.
However, the company said significant concerns remain. Figures once again were very low in March and while more Hollywood imports have got a release they have “generally not shown the levels of box office success that would be hoped”.
The $6.8bn would bring China level with 2021 (at current exchange rates), although the revised forecast is based almost entirely on how much Q1 actuals over-performed estimates. The company is holding its Q2, Q3 and Q4 estimates “relatively steady” as its recovery predictions for the market were already more bullish looking further into the year.
Gower Street Analytics has revised upwards its international market projection (excluding China) by 10% from $14.8bn to $16.2bn. A significant driver was a better than predicted first quarter led by holdover business from Avatar: The Way Of Water.
Also significant are a robust release calendar, local hits, and a number of non-US titles travelling beyond their home markets, for example Japanese anime. January exceeded the company’s original estimate by 23%, February by 10% and March by 2% – adding up to approximately $400m in Q1.
Additionally, approximately 13% of the $3bn in increased global projection is due to changes in currency exchange rates between December 2022 and the end of March.
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