Ne Zha 2

Source: Enlight Pictures

‘Ne Zha 2’

UK-based film data and insights specialist Gower Street Analytics has revised upwards its 2025 global box office forecast by $1.1bn to $34.1bn.

In December, Gower Street projected 2025 would gross $33bn. The company changed its estimate in light of a strong 2025 first quarter of results from China, led by the animated phenomenon Ne Zha 2, now the fifth highest-grossing film of all time globally on $2.08bn as of March 24.

China’s 2025 projection has been revised upwards by $1bn to $7.6bn. The new estimate would see China finish 30% ahead of 2024 (up 29% at current exchange rates). It would still be 1% behind 2023, though this would adjust to a 1% increase at current exchange rates. It would remain 6% behind an average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) at current exchange rates.

The revision comes as the world’s leading exhibitors and Hollywood executives descend on CinemaCon in Las Vegas, which runs from March 31-April 3.

$34.1bn global box office in 2025 would represent an approximate 13% increase year-on-year (a 10% increase at current exchange rates) from 2024, and a marginal 0.5% increase from 2023 (up 3% at current exchange rates). The 2024 revised estimate is 13% behind an average of the last three pre-pandemic years at current exchange rates.

The estimate for the North American market, however, has been revised downwards slightly from $9.7bn to $9.5bn. Although the first quarter performed within the expected range, the lack of breakout hits so far this year resulted in the slight reduction. A $9.5bn 2025 result would represent an 8% increase on 2024 and a 5% increase on 2023, although a 17% deficit against the average of the last three pre-pandemic years.

The projection for the international market (excluding China) sees a marginal increase of approximately $200m, from $16.8bn to $17bn. Recovering international exchange rates against the US dollar has meant this growth could have gone up by approximately $500m, however marginally lower than predicted results in Q1 led to a reduction for the year of around $300m.

The new $17m projection represents a 10% increase on 2024 (up 5% at current exchange rates) and a 1% decrease against 2023 (2% increase at current exchange rates), and is 14% behind an average of the last three pre-pandemic years at current exchange rates.

The calculation is based on the current release calendar. The 2025 slate includes Paramount’s Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Universal’s Wicked: For Good, Disney’s Zootopia 2, and Disney/20th Century Studios’ Avatar: Fire And Ash.

Topics