Oscars 2015: Who will win, who should win

Although the Hollywood guild awards have tipped the scales back in Birdman’s favour, I’m still predicting that Boyhood will take Best Picture on Oscar night.

Richard Linklater’s astonishing film has a once-in-a-generation humanist significance that Oscar voters will want to recognise, as so many critics groups and awards bodies (including the BAFTAs) already have.

Three of the four acting categories appear to be dead certs, and justifiably so. Best Actor is the only one that feels open but in spite of Eddie Redmayne’s post-BAFTA momentum, I’m still betting on Michael Keaton to stride up to the podium on the night.

The Academy’s membership will be keen to give Birdman at least one if not more major prizes, which is why I’m also giving Alejandro G. Inarritu the slight edge for Best Director, although Linklater’s chances are also strong. It wouldn’t rank as too much of an upset if the Austin-based filmmaker’s life tapestry takes both top prizes.

The screenplay categories feel fairly open: I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the 10 nominees triumph, given that each have their very vocal supporters and detractors (although we can probably rule out Whiplash’s chances, given the Academy’s baffling decision to slot Damien Chazelle’s script into the adapted category because he turned one sequence into a short to help lure investors).

We could see upsets here, although I’m still tipping Anthony McCarten for The Theory Of Everything and Wes Anderson to bring home his first Oscar for The Grand Budapest Hotel.

In Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and Foreign-Language Film, I’m going with How To Train Your Dragon 2, CitizenFour and Ida over my own favourites in each category: Tomm Kell’s gorgeous Celtic fantasy Song Of The Sea; the devastating conservation documentary Virunga; and Andrey Zvyagintsev’s Biblical blasting of modern-day Russia, Leviathan.

BEST PICTURE

• Will win BOYHOOD
• Should win BOYHOOD

BEST ACTOR

• Will win MICHAEL KEATON, BIRDMAN
• Should win EDDIE REDMAYNE, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING

BEST ACTRESS

• Will win JULIANNE MOORE, STILL ALICE
• Should win JULIANNE MOORE, STILL ALICE

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Will win JK SIMMONS, WHIPLASH
• Should win JK SIMMONS, WHIPLASH

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Will win PATRICIA ARQUETTE, BOYHOOD
• Should win PATRICIA ARQUETTE, BOYHOOD

BEST DIRECTOR

• Will win ALEJANDRO G. INARRITU, BIRDMAN
• Should win RICHARD LINKLATER, BOYHOOD

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Will win EMMANUEL LUBEZKI, BIRDMAN
• Should win EMMANUEL LUBEZKI, BIRDMAN

BEST ANIMATED FILM

• Will win HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2
• Should win SONG OF THE SEA

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Will win CITIZENFOUR
• Should win VIRUNGA

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• Will win IDA
• Should win LEVIATHAN

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Will win THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
• Should win THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Will win THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
• Should win THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL

The major categories seem quite easy to call this year, so I’m expecting to get every one wrong.

The hardest ones to second-guess are best picture (Boyhood? The Theory Of Everything? The Imitation Game? - it should be the unique Boyhood) and lead actor (Eddie Redmayne? Michael Keaton? - Keaton, I hope.)

I’d be delighted if Ida wins foreign language but Leviathan, which I didn’t think was amazing, has built quite a head of steam. 

Best Picture

• Will win Boyhood
• Should win Boyhood

Best Actor

• Will win Eddie Redmayne
• Should win Michael Keaton

Best Actress

• Will win Julianne Moore
• Should win Marion Cotillard

Best Actor supporting

• Will win JK Simmons
• Should win JK Simmons

Best Actress supporting

• Will win Patricia Arquette
• Should win Patricia Arquette

Directing

• Will win Richard Linklater
• Should win Richard Linklater

Cinematography

• Will win Emmanuel Lubezki
• Should win Emmanuel Lubezki

Animated Feature Film

• Will win Big Hero 6
• Should win Song Of The Sea

Documentary Feature

• Will win Citizenfour
• Should win Citizenfour

Foreign Language

• Will win Leviathan
• Should win Ida

Writing Adapted Screenplay

• Will win Anthony McCarten, The Theory Of Everything
• Should win Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

Writing Original Screenplay

• Will win Richard Linklater, Boyhood
• Should win Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler

The awards gods seem to aligning for Boyhood, which in my opinion is this year’s standout nominee. The film’s conceptual, directing and acting excellence are deserving of multiple awards.

However, the Academy have liked to split Best Picture and Best Director in recent editions. The Grand Budapest Hotel was a visual feast and Ida and Timbuktu were very strong but I expect few major surprises in what many consider a below-vintage year for depth.

Selma should have been in the running for at least a Best Actor nomination.

Best Picture

• Will Win: Boyhood
• Should Win: Boyhood

Best Actor

• Will Win: Eddie Redmayne
• Should Win: Eddie Redmayne

Best Actress

• Will Win: Julianne Moore
• Should Win: Julianne Moore

Directing

• Will Win: Alejandro G Inarritu
• Should Win: Richard Linklater

Cinematography

• Will Win: Birdman
• Should Win: Ida or The Grand Budapest Hotel

Animated

• Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
• Should Win: Song of the Sea

Documentary

• Will Win: CitizenFour
• Should Win: CitizenFour

Adapted Screenplay

• Will Win: The Imitation Game
• Should Win: Inherent Vice

Original Screenplay

• Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Should Win: Boyhood

Foreign Language

• Will Win: Ida
• Should Win: Ida or Timbuktu.

Supporting Actor

• Will Win: JK Simmons
• Should Win: JK Simmons

Supporting Actress

• Will Win: Patricia Arquette
• Should Win: Patricia Arquette