Asthe final wet prints of year-end releases are frantically unveiled toawards voters in Los Angeles, New York and London, a picture of theplayers who will rise to the top in the kudos countdown is emerging.
And that picture is a surprising one.
2006 has featured an unusuallylarge number of so-called prestige films.
Some, like All The King's Menand A Good Year, were early exits from the race when they were firstscreened. Others, like Children Of Men and Stranger Than Fiction mightbe considered more audience movies than 'award movies'.
Yet others -Infamous, Running With Scissors, Fur, Catch A Fire - have had mutedresponses on opening and are unlikely to go the distance.
Thehandicapping game is a tough one at this stage.
None of the critics'groups have yet announced their choices, many of the films have justbeen screened for the first time, yet verdicts have already been givenon most of the films and Hollywood phone lines are abuzz with whatdelivers - and what doesn't.
Screen's director feature for theawards countdown speculates on the top-10 contenders not necessarilybased on whether they were best directors or not, but based on theirfilms' standing at time of going to press and their own standing interms of box office, media response and that indefinable award-friendlyquality they might possess.
Three major films had not been screenedat time of going to press - Mel Gibson's Apocalypto, Clint Eastwood'sLetters From Iwo Jima and Robert De Niro's The Good Shepherd - so thejury was still out on whether those directors would figure in the race.
THE CONTENDERS
1 Martin Scorsese, The Departed
WHY
Scorsesewas nominated for both Gangs Of New York and The Aviator, but commonbelief has it that he stands his biggest chance in recent years for TheDeparted, a genre movie of sorts which was not only his biggest hit atthe box office to date but one of the most entertaining films of theyear.
CHANCES
In a year where obvious directing candidates arefew and far between, who better than Martin Scorsese to win for hismost accomplished film since Goodfellas 17 years ago. The film-makerrenowned for never having won an Oscar could do worse than to win forThe Departed which revisits themes and milieux familiar from hisgreatest work.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR NOMINATIONS: Five, forRaging Bull (1980), The Last Temptation Of Christ (1988), Goodfellas(1990), Gangs Of New York (2002) and The Aviator (2004).
PREVIOUSDIRECTING BAFTA NOMINATIONS: Six, for Alice Doesn't Live Here Anymore(1974), Taxi Driver (1976), The King Of Comedy (1983), Goodfellas(1990), Gangs Of New York (2002) and The Aviator (2004). He won forGoodfellas.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: Six, forRaging Bull (1980), Goodfellas (1990), The Age Of Innocence (1993),Casino (1995), Gangs Of New York (2002) and The Aviator (2004). He wonfor Gangs Of New York.
2 Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
WHY
Thereare few films this year with such ambition, scale and passion as Babeland very few that so clearly embody the film-maker's vision. Inarrituemployed the fractured narrative structure which is his trademark fromAmores Perros and 21 Grams and applies it to a much grander story ofglobal unity and human frailty, which, like it or not, results in oneof the boldest films of the year.
CHANCES
At a time when UScitizens are starting to appreciate their government's impact on therest of the world, Babel might be the celluloid lightning rod in thisyear's awards season for voters to express their global understanding.Inarritu is certainly now widely acknowledged as a unique director andhis powerful, intense style should comfortably net him a directingnomination this year.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR, BAFTA AND GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: 0
3 Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
WHY
Condonwas Oscar nominated for writing Chicago, the film that reinvented themusical, so all eyes were on him when he took on the reins ofDreamgirls, the film of the beloved Broadway musical. That he does asterling job rendering such a music-bound show with both exuberance anda keen sense of cinema seals his reputation as a director as much as awriter.
CHANCES
Dreamgirls is one of the purest Hollywoodspectacles this year, a lavish musical dripping with talented stars,over-the-top production values and showstopping moments. If it doesn'thave the cheeky irony which made Chicago such a favourite, it doesoffer a perfect option for voters anxious to award a satisfyingentertainment emblematic of Hollywood. With that in mind, Condon shouldscore his first directing nomination.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR, BAFTA AND GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: 0
4 Stephen Frears, The Queen
WHY
Easilythe most acclaimed English-language film of the year and a box officesuccess in the UK and US, The Queen should soar come awards time inmultiple categories. Frears, who was passed over for Dangerous Liaisonsin 1988 but Oscar nominated for The Grifters in 1990, has been givingmost of the limelight to his star Helen Mirren, but few critics havefailed to recognise his subtle, precise direction and his remarkableskill in avoiding caricature.
CHANCES
Frears is one of thosedirectors whose leading ladies usually get recognised before he does(Glenn Close, Anjelica Huston, Judi Dench), and certainly The Queencould run that risk with Mirren a dead cert for an actress nomination.Still, with this film's pedigree, even the most actor-friendly Oscarvoter surely wouldn't overlook Frears.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR NOMINATIONS: One, for The Grifters (1990)
PREVIOUS DIRECTING BAFTA NOMINATIONS: Two, for Dirty Pretty Things (2003) and Dangerous Liaisons (1988)
PREVIOUS DIRECTING GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: O
5 Oliver Stone, World Trade Center
WHY
OliverStone received his best reviews since JFK for World Trade Center, afilm which surprised many Stone fans. A strong box office performeraround the world, the film was praised for its visceral depiction ofthe collapse of the twin towers and Stone's achievement in salvagingsome optimism out of those events.
CHANCES
Stone is a perennialOscar favourite and Paramount-backed World Trade Center was his ticketback to respectability after the independent fiasco of Alexander.Voters will also perhaps feel they should endorse a Hollywood attemptto tackle 9/11 and World Trade Center is a more uplifting affair thanthe Universal-backed United 93.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCARNOMINATIONS: Three, for Platoon (1986), Born On The Fourth Of July(1989) and JFK (1991); he won for the first two films.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING BAFTA NOMINATIONS: One, for Platoon (1986) which he also won.
PREVIOUSDIRECTING GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: Four, for Platoon (1986), Born OnThe Fourth Of July (1989), JFK (1991) and Natural Born Killers (1994).He won for the first three.
6 Emilio Estevez, Bobby
WHY
TheBrat Pack actor is no stranger to directing. His film credits includeWisdom (1986), Men At Work (1990), The War At Home (1996) and Rated X(2000) and he has worked extensively on TV series like CSI: NY, CloseTo Home and The Guardian, but his dream project Bobby has confirmed himas a major league talent. His long-in-the-making opus about 22characters on the day of Robert Kennedy's assassination was a hugepopular success at the Venice Film Festival and has been carefullypositioned by The Weinstein Company as a key awards contender.
CHANCES
LiberalHollywoodites will embrace the ideals that Estevez wears on his sleevehere, not to mention shower him with respect for the epic struggle hefaced to get the film made and the enormous cast of name actors heassembled (most of whom, incidentally, will be voters). A sentimentalfavourite for a directing nomination.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR, BAFTA AND GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: 0
7 Pedro Almodovar, Volver
WHY
Ina year which has seen such mediocrity in US cinema, Volver from Spanishmaster Almodovar might just be the emotional jewel which galvanizesvoting bodies. The director's warm and feminine ode to his mother andhis upbringing, Volver has finally hit US theatres after a glory marchfrom Cannes through Toronto, New York and AFI FEST in Los Angeles,generally glowing reviews and Oscar talk for its leading lady PenelopeCruz.
CHANCES
Almodovar, like Fellini, Bergman and Truffaut inthe 60s and 70s, has become the one foreign-language film-maker todaywho has transcended his nationality in the eyes of the Academy. Hence,when Spain neglected to submit Talk To Her as a foreign-language Oscarsubmission in 2002, Almodovar got directing and screenplay nominations,and won for screenplay. Volver has been submitted for theforeign-language category but is such a classic slice of Almodovar thatit could also score nominations in actress and director categories.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR NOMINATIONS: One for Talk To Her (2002)
PREVIOUS DIRECTING BAFTA NOMINATIONS: One for All About My Mother (1999) which he won.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: 0
8 Clint Eastwood, Flags Of Our Fathers
WHY
Flags Of Our Fathers proved a divisive film, some rejecting it as afractured, reactionary affair, others embracing it for the complexquestions it raised about courage and patriotism. Eastwood neverthelesscreates a memorable portrait of the battle for Iwo Jima and afascinating insight into the US government's war bond fundraisingcampaign - not too far removed from today's US politicking.Demonstrating his range with both large-scale battle scenes andintimate moments between soldiers, he confirms that he is one of themost elegant and assured directors at work today.
CHANCES
Votersmight think that Eastwood has had his fair share of honours this decadewith Million Dollar Baby and Mystic River, especially since this filmhas not been as warmly received as those two. He might also split hisown vote since the Japanese-language companion piece to Flags, calledLetters From Iwo Jima, has now been moved to this year's Oscar race.Nonetheless in a year when few films stand out as shoo-ins, votersmight easily fall back on an old favourite like Clint.
PREVIOUSDIRECTING OSCAR NOMINATIONS: Three for Unforgiven (1992), Mystic River(2003) and Million Dollar Baby (2005). Won for Unforgiven and MillionDollar Baby.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING BAFTA NOMINATIONS: One for Unforgiven (1992)
PREVIOUSDIRECTING GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: Four for Bird (1988), Unforgiven(1992), Mystic River (2003) and Million Dollar Baby (2005). He won forBird, Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby.
9 Paul Greengrass, United 93
WHY
Wasthere a more precise and effective major studio movie all year thanUnited 93' Probably not. Based on a series of intelligent choices -shooting in real time, using actors who aren't household names,portraying the hijackers as human beings, avoiding sentimentality orcliche - United 93 emerged as a penetrating and devastating recreationof the terror of 9/11 courtesy of the documentary-style approach thatGreengrass had already used to such effect in 2002's Bloody Sunday.
CHANCES
Fewcan deny the film-making accomplishments of United 93, but the raw,un-Hollywood authenticity of the piece was a cause of discomfort tomany. Older voters might prefer to favour the inferior World TradeCenter for its more hopeful resonances and emotional family elements.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR, BAFTA AND GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: 0
10 Todd Field, Little Children
WHY
Field'sstock rose considerably in 2006 after Little Children had its worldpremiere at Toronto and critics declared that not only was In TheBedroom not a fluke but that Field had the voice and a vision of a trueAmerican auteur. His absorbing tale of unhappy folk in suburbia ishyper-stylised, visually lush and darkly comic and, as befits Field'sbackground as an actor, boasts superb performances.
CHANCES
Fieldwon Oscar nominations for producing and writing In The Bedroom in 2001,but he was omitted from the director list. Little Children is a morebravura, showy directorial affair and for that reason might get Field adirecting endorsement, although its topics like adultery, paedophiliaand self-circumcision could easily turn conservative Academy membersoff.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR, BAFTA AND GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: 0
THE NEXT TEN
11 Sofia Coppola, Marie Antoinette
12 Gabriele Muccino, The Pursuit Of Happyness
13 Guillermo del Toro, Pan's Labyrinth
14 Edward Zwick, Blood Diamond
15 Steven Soderbergh, The Good German
16 Marc Forster, Stranger Than Fiction
17 Tom Tykwer, Perfume: The Story Of A Murderer
18 Kevin Macdonald, The Last King Of Scotland
19 Richard Eyre, Notes On A Scandal
20 Darren Aronofsky, The Fountain
And that picture is a surprising one.
2006 has featured an unusuallylarge number of so-called prestige films.
Some, like All The King's Menand A Good Year, were early exits from the race when they were firstscreened. Others, like Children Of Men and Stranger Than Fiction mightbe considered more audience movies than 'award movies'.
Yet others -Infamous, Running With Scissors, Fur, Catch A Fire - have had mutedresponses on opening and are unlikely to go the distance.
Thehandicapping game is a tough one at this stage.
None of the critics'groups have yet announced their choices, many of the films have justbeen screened for the first time, yet verdicts have already been givenon most of the films and Hollywood phone lines are abuzz with whatdelivers - and what doesn't.
Screen's director feature for theawards countdown speculates on the top-10 contenders not necessarilybased on whether they were best directors or not, but based on theirfilms' standing at time of going to press and their own standing interms of box office, media response and that indefinable award-friendlyquality they might possess.
Three major films had not been screenedat time of going to press - Mel Gibson's Apocalypto, Clint Eastwood'sLetters From Iwo Jima and Robert De Niro's The Good Shepherd - so thejury was still out on whether those directors would figure in the race.
THE CONTENDERS
1 Martin Scorsese, The Departed
WHY
Scorsesewas nominated for both Gangs Of New York and The Aviator, but commonbelief has it that he stands his biggest chance in recent years for TheDeparted, a genre movie of sorts which was not only his biggest hit atthe box office to date but one of the most entertaining films of theyear.
CHANCES
In a year where obvious directing candidates arefew and far between, who better than Martin Scorsese to win for hismost accomplished film since Goodfellas 17 years ago. The film-makerrenowned for never having won an Oscar could do worse than to win forThe Departed which revisits themes and milieux familiar from hisgreatest work.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR NOMINATIONS: Five, forRaging Bull (1980), The Last Temptation Of Christ (1988), Goodfellas(1990), Gangs Of New York (2002) and The Aviator (2004).
PREVIOUSDIRECTING BAFTA NOMINATIONS: Six, for Alice Doesn't Live Here Anymore(1974), Taxi Driver (1976), The King Of Comedy (1983), Goodfellas(1990), Gangs Of New York (2002) and The Aviator (2004). He won forGoodfellas.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: Six, forRaging Bull (1980), Goodfellas (1990), The Age Of Innocence (1993),Casino (1995), Gangs Of New York (2002) and The Aviator (2004). He wonfor Gangs Of New York.
2 Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
WHY
Thereare few films this year with such ambition, scale and passion as Babeland very few that so clearly embody the film-maker's vision. Inarrituemployed the fractured narrative structure which is his trademark fromAmores Perros and 21 Grams and applies it to a much grander story ofglobal unity and human frailty, which, like it or not, results in oneof the boldest films of the year.
CHANCES
At a time when UScitizens are starting to appreciate their government's impact on therest of the world, Babel might be the celluloid lightning rod in thisyear's awards season for voters to express their global understanding.Inarritu is certainly now widely acknowledged as a unique director andhis powerful, intense style should comfortably net him a directingnomination this year.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR, BAFTA AND GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: 0
3 Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
WHY
Condonwas Oscar nominated for writing Chicago, the film that reinvented themusical, so all eyes were on him when he took on the reins ofDreamgirls, the film of the beloved Broadway musical. That he does asterling job rendering such a music-bound show with both exuberance anda keen sense of cinema seals his reputation as a director as much as awriter.
CHANCES
Dreamgirls is one of the purest Hollywoodspectacles this year, a lavish musical dripping with talented stars,over-the-top production values and showstopping moments. If it doesn'thave the cheeky irony which made Chicago such a favourite, it doesoffer a perfect option for voters anxious to award a satisfyingentertainment emblematic of Hollywood. With that in mind, Condon shouldscore his first directing nomination.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR, BAFTA AND GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: 0
4 Stephen Frears, The Queen
WHY
Easilythe most acclaimed English-language film of the year and a box officesuccess in the UK and US, The Queen should soar come awards time inmultiple categories. Frears, who was passed over for Dangerous Liaisonsin 1988 but Oscar nominated for The Grifters in 1990, has been givingmost of the limelight to his star Helen Mirren, but few critics havefailed to recognise his subtle, precise direction and his remarkableskill in avoiding caricature.
CHANCES
Frears is one of thosedirectors whose leading ladies usually get recognised before he does(Glenn Close, Anjelica Huston, Judi Dench), and certainly The Queencould run that risk with Mirren a dead cert for an actress nomination.Still, with this film's pedigree, even the most actor-friendly Oscarvoter surely wouldn't overlook Frears.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR NOMINATIONS: One, for The Grifters (1990)
PREVIOUS DIRECTING BAFTA NOMINATIONS: Two, for Dirty Pretty Things (2003) and Dangerous Liaisons (1988)
PREVIOUS DIRECTING GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: O
5 Oliver Stone, World Trade Center
WHY
OliverStone received his best reviews since JFK for World Trade Center, afilm which surprised many Stone fans. A strong box office performeraround the world, the film was praised for its visceral depiction ofthe collapse of the twin towers and Stone's achievement in salvagingsome optimism out of those events.
CHANCES
Stone is a perennialOscar favourite and Paramount-backed World Trade Center was his ticketback to respectability after the independent fiasco of Alexander.Voters will also perhaps feel they should endorse a Hollywood attemptto tackle 9/11 and World Trade Center is a more uplifting affair thanthe Universal-backed United 93.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCARNOMINATIONS: Three, for Platoon (1986), Born On The Fourth Of July(1989) and JFK (1991); he won for the first two films.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING BAFTA NOMINATIONS: One, for Platoon (1986) which he also won.
PREVIOUSDIRECTING GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: Four, for Platoon (1986), Born OnThe Fourth Of July (1989), JFK (1991) and Natural Born Killers (1994).He won for the first three.
6 Emilio Estevez, Bobby
WHY
TheBrat Pack actor is no stranger to directing. His film credits includeWisdom (1986), Men At Work (1990), The War At Home (1996) and Rated X(2000) and he has worked extensively on TV series like CSI: NY, CloseTo Home and The Guardian, but his dream project Bobby has confirmed himas a major league talent. His long-in-the-making opus about 22characters on the day of Robert Kennedy's assassination was a hugepopular success at the Venice Film Festival and has been carefullypositioned by The Weinstein Company as a key awards contender.
CHANCES
LiberalHollywoodites will embrace the ideals that Estevez wears on his sleevehere, not to mention shower him with respect for the epic struggle hefaced to get the film made and the enormous cast of name actors heassembled (most of whom, incidentally, will be voters). A sentimentalfavourite for a directing nomination.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR, BAFTA AND GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: 0
7 Pedro Almodovar, Volver
WHY
Ina year which has seen such mediocrity in US cinema, Volver from Spanishmaster Almodovar might just be the emotional jewel which galvanizesvoting bodies. The director's warm and feminine ode to his mother andhis upbringing, Volver has finally hit US theatres after a glory marchfrom Cannes through Toronto, New York and AFI FEST in Los Angeles,generally glowing reviews and Oscar talk for its leading lady PenelopeCruz.
CHANCES
Almodovar, like Fellini, Bergman and Truffaut inthe 60s and 70s, has become the one foreign-language film-maker todaywho has transcended his nationality in the eyes of the Academy. Hence,when Spain neglected to submit Talk To Her as a foreign-language Oscarsubmission in 2002, Almodovar got directing and screenplay nominations,and won for screenplay. Volver has been submitted for theforeign-language category but is such a classic slice of Almodovar thatit could also score nominations in actress and director categories.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR NOMINATIONS: One for Talk To Her (2002)
PREVIOUS DIRECTING BAFTA NOMINATIONS: One for All About My Mother (1999) which he won.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: 0
8 Clint Eastwood, Flags Of Our Fathers
WHY
Flags Of Our Fathers proved a divisive film, some rejecting it as afractured, reactionary affair, others embracing it for the complexquestions it raised about courage and patriotism. Eastwood neverthelesscreates a memorable portrait of the battle for Iwo Jima and afascinating insight into the US government's war bond fundraisingcampaign - not too far removed from today's US politicking.Demonstrating his range with both large-scale battle scenes andintimate moments between soldiers, he confirms that he is one of themost elegant and assured directors at work today.
CHANCES
Votersmight think that Eastwood has had his fair share of honours this decadewith Million Dollar Baby and Mystic River, especially since this filmhas not been as warmly received as those two. He might also split hisown vote since the Japanese-language companion piece to Flags, calledLetters From Iwo Jima, has now been moved to this year's Oscar race.Nonetheless in a year when few films stand out as shoo-ins, votersmight easily fall back on an old favourite like Clint.
PREVIOUSDIRECTING OSCAR NOMINATIONS: Three for Unforgiven (1992), Mystic River(2003) and Million Dollar Baby (2005). Won for Unforgiven and MillionDollar Baby.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING BAFTA NOMINATIONS: One for Unforgiven (1992)
PREVIOUSDIRECTING GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: Four for Bird (1988), Unforgiven(1992), Mystic River (2003) and Million Dollar Baby (2005). He won forBird, Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby.
9 Paul Greengrass, United 93
WHY
Wasthere a more precise and effective major studio movie all year thanUnited 93' Probably not. Based on a series of intelligent choices -shooting in real time, using actors who aren't household names,portraying the hijackers as human beings, avoiding sentimentality orcliche - United 93 emerged as a penetrating and devastating recreationof the terror of 9/11 courtesy of the documentary-style approach thatGreengrass had already used to such effect in 2002's Bloody Sunday.
CHANCES
Fewcan deny the film-making accomplishments of United 93, but the raw,un-Hollywood authenticity of the piece was a cause of discomfort tomany. Older voters might prefer to favour the inferior World TradeCenter for its more hopeful resonances and emotional family elements.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR, BAFTA AND GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: 0
10 Todd Field, Little Children
WHY
Field'sstock rose considerably in 2006 after Little Children had its worldpremiere at Toronto and critics declared that not only was In TheBedroom not a fluke but that Field had the voice and a vision of a trueAmerican auteur. His absorbing tale of unhappy folk in suburbia ishyper-stylised, visually lush and darkly comic and, as befits Field'sbackground as an actor, boasts superb performances.
CHANCES
Fieldwon Oscar nominations for producing and writing In The Bedroom in 2001,but he was omitted from the director list. Little Children is a morebravura, showy directorial affair and for that reason might get Field adirecting endorsement, although its topics like adultery, paedophiliaand self-circumcision could easily turn conservative Academy membersoff.
PREVIOUS DIRECTING OSCAR, BAFTA AND GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: 0
THE NEXT TEN
11 Sofia Coppola, Marie Antoinette
12 Gabriele Muccino, The Pursuit Of Happyness
13 Guillermo del Toro, Pan's Labyrinth
14 Edward Zwick, Blood Diamond
15 Steven Soderbergh, The Good German
16 Marc Forster, Stranger Than Fiction
17 Tom Tykwer, Perfume: The Story Of A Murderer
18 Kevin Macdonald, The Last King Of Scotland
19 Richard Eyre, Notes On A Scandal
20 Darren Aronofsky, The Fountain
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