What willcinema-going look like in 10 years'

For an industry that finds itself in such flux, it is difficult to predict what Hollywood will be like in a year's time, let alone a decade. Yet it seems reasonable to ask what form the landscape may take in a decade. In fact, given the pace of change and technological advances, 10 years does not seem that far off.

The rise of social networking sites, alternative distribution platforms, 3D and video games point towards a brave new world. Ahead of next week's annual ShoWest convention in Las Vegas (March 30-April 2), we put a series of searching questions to a dozen industry leaders and prominent thinkers. These comprised studio distribution chiefs, producers, the head of a lobby group, an analyst, futurologists (predictors of future trends), a business development executive at a leading agency and representatives from the world of exhibition and Imax.

What will the physical environment of the cinema look like in 10 years' time'

Erin Corbett, president and chief marketing officer, Imagi Studios US: We've had talks with exhibitors in Hollywood and they want to make the cinema come alive. You're talking about physical effects as well as 3D and surround sound; effects that make the viewer think animals are scurrying under their bags or behind their headrests to enhance what's happening on the screen. We're going to see a move towards fuller sensory immersion.

Adam Devejian, business development executive, Creative Artists Agency: There will be more 'viewing clubs' and less conventional theatres. The viewing clubs are smaller venues of around 100 seats, with 100+ inch 3D LCD screens, plus bar and restaurant.

Veronika Kwan-Rubinek, president of international distribution, Warner Bros: I expect it to be a mix of digital 3D and 2D, as well as Imax. I think we'll also see more experimentation with a more immersive experience, for example vibrating and/or moving chairs to further enhance the overall experience.

Ted Mundorff, CEO, Landmark Theatres: There will be more 'niche theatres', meaning theatres that cater to specific segments of movie-goers. For example, the Alamo Drafthouse in Austin attracts a very loyal following which is very different from either The Landmark in West LA or The ArcLight in Hollywood. You will see more theatres offer additional amenities to meet consumer demand and cater to various demographics.

David Zach, futurist: The industry is always trying to ensure that each cinema experience is better than the last one and there's a battle to capture the modern fickle attention. Teenagers affect an attitude because they know Hollywood's trying to seduce them but both sides eventually get exhausted, so the only antidote is a sense of elegance and eloquence. Ten years from now a cinema should remind me more of Cary Grant and Audrey Hepburn and less of hookers and gangsters. They should allow me to focus on singular experiences that leave me with comforting or cathartic attitudes.

Will prints exist'

Lori McCreary: In many rural areas of the world, prints will continue to exist. Digital projectors will be too hard to service in some parts of the world. After a few generations of digital projectors have come and gone, aid organisations will have older equipment donated and digital will eventually service the entire planet.

Nikki Rocco: In 10 years it is certainly not in our plan to be manufacturing more prints than we have digital bookings. There may be independent, small-town theatres who cannot afford to convert to digital and can generate enough box office to warrant making prints.

James Stern: I don't think so. We lose depth and richness with digital but at the end of the day, that's what people said about LPs versus CDs.

What kind of films will the studios be making'

Barton Crockett: Digital video recorders, YouTube, Hulu, etc will all condition consumers to prefer short-form content. Attention spans will shorten and so will movies. Also, 3D will be an essential part of animated, action-adventure and fantasy genres.

Ian Pearson: In terms of storyline and genre they will be much the same. But there will be integration between cinema and video-games where we can expect to see audiences interfacing with technologies like fingertip tracking and gesture recognition that will allow the viewer to interact with what's on the screen. The rise of social networking sites will also be reflected in how studios tell stories and you will see audiences gain input that decides the outcome of the story.

Nikki Rocco: Studios will be using more digital effects and topics and genres may take on more relevant thematic tones. The simple answer is that we hope to continue making entertaining movies for broad audience tastes.

Will foreign-language and arthouse films even get a theatrical release'

Lori McCreary: Smaller films that develop a word-of-mouth following and have a deep-pocket distributor behind them will continue to get theatrical releases, although many independent film distributors will find niche marketing opportunities concentrated in online channels and will find their marketing dollars easier to justify as online traffic for films grows.

Ted Mundorff: Not only will they get a theatrical release but the fact is many of these films have never been more popular. In fact, with the recent success of Slumdog Millionaire and Juno grossing more than $100m at the box office, I think studios will continue to find more effective ways to promote and nurture films like this so they can stay on screens longer and find their audience

Nikki Rocco: We would say that quality films, worthy of being shown in the theatrical format certainly should find an appropriate release strategy.

Will the large screen format be dominant'

John Fithian: No. The large-screen format is an important niche market within the industry, but it's an expensive one because of the cost of the equipment and the screen involved and theatre design. We have found the multiplex format with a range of auditorium sizes is the most successful.

Greg Foster: We will have a much bigger market share, but 'dominate'' It's not about domination; there's plenty of room for everyone. What Imax does is add a differentiation and that's what is going to drive people out of their homes to these entertainment destinations.

Ian Pearson: I don't think Imax will be dominant but it's interesting to consider what we mean by 'large screen', because one emerging technology is video goggles, which are like a wraparound screen right in front of the viewer's eyes. The large screen format is almost going to go inside the viewer's head.

How many films each year will be released solely theatrically and not simultaneously on VoD'

Barton Crockett: I expect exclusive theatrical windows to remain the norm, although windows may shorten, as movies cycle through theatres faster. Studios will continue to see theatrical performance as the key driver of home video, including video-on-demand (VoD). 3D will make theatrical exhibition more profitable to studios. On the other hand, price compression resulting from growth of VoD and internet distribution will make home video less lucrative, leaving studios more motivated to protect theatrical windows.

Adam Devejian: There will be a base of big budget films, perhaps 300, that will warrant a unique theatrical release. Those films will be valuable in VoD, DVD, and pay TV and will warrant a delayed, 'windowed' release pattern. The digitisation of cinema will make theatrical exhibition far more efficient and open more opportunities for theatrical exhibition. For example, weekend mornings might allow exhibition of kids fare that is simultaneously broadcast on VoD. There will be many such opportunities for brief, 'surgical' theatrical releases of niche or long-tail content in theatres.

John Fithian: I don't believe the number of films released simultaneously to the home is going to grow much at all. To date the format hasn't worked. The window between theatrical release and home entertainment is pretty stable at about four and a half months. I believe distributors and exhibitors have found the balance of how to get returns.

Will the awards season play a significant role in the release of films'

John Fithian: I'm a big fan of the awards season as it impacts the commerce of cinema, but we're missing a huge opportunity to use awards to market the industry. The people need to be more involved. It's frankly a travesty that The Dark Knight didn't get a best picture nomination. That's absurd from a marketing point of view. We've considered our own awards programme where you hand out ballots at the cinemas and let people who are going to the movies choose who wins these awards. The elite selection of the award winners (by the Academy, Hfpa and critics groups) isn't a very commercial enterprise.

Greg Foster: They'll be like they are now. There need to be fewer awards shows but there will always be people making $4m-$5m movies with incredible performances hoping the awards can take them into a different stratosphere.

Veronika Kwan-Rubinek: The awards season will continue to play a significant role in the release of films. Arthouse and more specialised projects in particular will benefit from awards campaigns, nominations and, of course, success on the night.

What will the home cinema experience look and feel like'

Barton Crockett: Internet-based VoD will be emerging as the principal content distribution model. TV sets will connect to the internet, and TV shows will be downloadable or streamable shortly after original broadcast. Off-network internet content, such as YouTube or Netflix 'Watch Instantly', will be readily available on TV sets. Consumers will use a dual-touch remote, like an Apple iPod, to navigate the web on their TV set. Cable and telco companies will focus principally on providing broadband internet links, and programming packages mixing VoD/internet and traditional programming networks.

Adam Devejian: This next generation of home cinemas will have 3D-enabled large format LCD screens with content delivered by wireless broadband, and not supplied by a cable or satellite company. Most likely, a video game hardware manufacturer will introduce an 'uber-box' that has DVD, game, music and broadband connectivity.

Ian Pearson: We'll have various opportunities to interface with technology from the home and the techniques we'll have at our disposal will vary from contact lenses that will scan the image on to our retinas, to active skin technology whereby the viewer wears a thin polymer membrane that will allow the viewer to use the surface of the skin to command or respond to what's on the screen.

James Stern: It's going to be spectacular. 3D is going to be very, very real for home entertainment. It's scarcely imaginable that you can get a better picture than Blu-ray but 3D and surround sound etc will become more prevalent.

Who will be the gatekeeper of the home entertainment experience'

Erin Corbett: It depends on technology, but the problem is going to get worse. We're a Hong Kong-based company and there are very different laws in China governing piracy. As smart as we get, piracy is always going to be there. We're aware of the effect on revenues but it's something we will continue to live with. And don't forget the younger generation is growing up without the understanding of copyright that we share, and that's a part of everyday life.

James Stern: The home entertainment and pay-TV channels will be more and more powerful in the TV arena and as such will emerge with the power to act as gatekeepers.

David Zach: Clearly none of this needs to have a physical location, just access, so it seems that those who deliver things will be the gatekeepers. So it's the telecoms. The field of logistics is probably one of the most important things you can study if you want to be a gatekeeper, because it's all about the movement of people, things and ideas. It used to be location, location, location. Now it's location, amenities, access.

Will the DVD window exist'

Erin Corbett: It will. But what's interesting is we're going to see direct-to-video emerge as a platform for A-plus movies that can't get financing for a theatrical release. The perception that if a movie goes out straight to DVD it's inferior is going change. We're going to see a repositioning in this space. You'll see more companies coming in from outside Hollywood to help finance and distribute direct-to-DVD releases.

Lori McCreary: Windows will continue to collapse as distributors' long-term window-driven contracts expire and are renegotiated.

James Stern: No. Windows will collapse and there'll be no lag time - it's all going to be VoD. Piracy will be at such a high level that the only way for it not to be a problem is for there not to be a DVD window.

Will piracy be a greater problem'

Barton Crockett: Gatekeepers will be weakened, as internet access erodes 'walled gardens' (pre-selected content offerings, rather than open-access online content). Cable and telco companies will still have a role as providers of internet access, but will need to invest in wireless broadband to hedge obsolescence risk. Creators of popular content will have more power. Distributors and creators of less popular content will be weakened.

Veronika Kwan-Rubinek: Piracy will always be a problem.

Lori McCreary: Piracy will become less of a problem as film-makers and distributors agree to worldwide simultaneous releases across all formats. This will allow consumers to watch films when and where they want - and will make marketing spends more efficient, as the film will be available in all formats as soon as the public hears about it. And we will adopt a time-based pricing scheme where it is more expensive to view a film the closer it is to its initial release.

Nikki Rocco: It seems that piracy continues to be on the rise and we have no reason to believe that improvements in technology and the availability of technology across the planet will not contribute to it.

David Zach: If the average teenager has more image-processing power than most TV stations had less than a generation ago, I'm guessing piracy will not be greater or lesser, but will be forced into full redefinition. The Pirate's Dilemma by Matt Mason explains how kids via Napster and other sites took down an entire industry. Never underestimate the power of teenage boredom multiplied by unlimited bandwidth. If it wasn't for these so-called pirates, we'd still have VHS tapes clogging up our cabinets.

THE EXPERTS

Lori McCreary, Revelations Entertainment co-founder and CEO
Producer McCreary co-founded Revelations in 1996 with Morgan Freeman, which focuses on the interaction of technology and entertainment. In 2005 the partners launched the online distribution service Clickstar. She is now producing Clint Eastwood's Nelson Mandela project The Human Factor starring Freeman and Matt Damon. Previous credits include Feast Of Love (2007), The Maiden Heist (2008) and 10 Items Or Less (2006).

Ted Mundorff, CEO, Landmark Theatres
Mundorff oversees Landmark Theatres' stable of 57 movie theatres across the US under the auspices of Todd Wagner and Mark Cuban's vertically integrated entertainment venture. He has launched 30 theatres, including Los Angeles' acclaimed upscale multi-screen The Landmark in June 2007. He has championed digital installation and previously served as COO and head film buyer for Landmark Theatres. Before that he held senior management positions at Pacific Theatres, General Cinema and United Artists.

Ian Pearson, Futurologist
UK-based Pearson is a well-known media pundit and a former futurologist for British Telecom (BT). For BT he drew on his contacts across all industry sectors including nanotechnology and the environment to predict future trends. He studied applied mathematics and theoretical physics at university and worked for four years at Shorts Missile Systems in Belfast before joining BT. His predictions have included the integration of mobile telephony in traffic management systems and robots that can pass a Gcse school exam in the UK.

Nikki Rocco, President of distribution, Universal Pictures
Rocco turned heads when she broke through the glass ceiling in Hollywood in 1996 to become the first woman to be president of distribution at any studio. She started out at Universal as a part-time statistical analyst and moved to Los Angeles in 1981. Rocco has presided over blockbuster releases such as the Bourne franchise and is preparing a summer pipeline that includes Drag Me To Hell, Land Of The Lost, Public Enemies and Bruno.

James Stern, Endgame Entertainment founder, chairman and CEO
These are busy times for the feature producer, financier, longtime theatre producer and Endgame founder. Three of the company's productions - Easy Virtue, Every Little Step and The Brothers Bloom - are ready for US launches in the coming months while a fourth, An Education, is also coming out this year. Stern has also directed the documentaries The Year Of The Yao (2004) and So Goes The Nation (2006).

David Zach, Futurist
Zach is a US futurist who has worked for more than 20 years delivering speeches and predicting future trends for a client roster that has included American Express, IBM, Harley Davidson, the Institute of Real Estate Management and the Council of Educational Facility Planners. He earned his master's degree in 'studies of the future' from the University of Houston-Clear Lake and has advised more than 1,300 clients.

Erin Corbett, President and chief marketing officer, Imagi Studios US
Imagi Studios US is a division of the Hong Kong-based animation studio behind the much-anticipated Astro Boy, set to open later this year through Summit Entertainment. Corbett worked for eight years at Warner Bros, where she rose to become senior vice-president of national promotions and feature film marketing. She also served at Harrah's Entertainment in Las Vegas and began her career at The Walt Disney Company.

Barton Crockett, Media analyst, Lazard Capital Markets
Crockett previously served as an equity analyst at JP Morgan, an associate analyst at Hambrecht & Quist and for three years as a reporter for msnbc.com. During his career as an analyst he has covered such companies as Marvel, DreamWorks and Netflix.

Adam Devejian, Business development executive and strategic planner at Creative Artists Agency
Devejian corrals an extensive network of contacts to identify new avenues of opportunity for the agency. He represented Imax for eight years and sold the 2007 concert picture U2 3D. His areas of expertise include digital cinema and the entertainment applications of commercial satellites.

John Fithian, President and CEO of the National Association Of Theatre Owners
As the chief guardian of the exhibition sector, the droll Fithian is a familiar face on the circuit, giving keynote addresses and taking part in panel discussions. He has frequently extolled the virtues of the communal cinema experience and championed developments such as digital installation, 3D and alternative programming for theatre owners.

Greg Foster, Chairman and president of Imax Filmed Entertainment
In recent years Imax has raised its global profile through an aggressive installation programme and greater emphasis on studio partnerships. Foster is riding high following a successful tie-in with Warner Bros on the recent release of Watchmen, which scored the second biggest opening weekend for Imax behind The Dark Knight in 2008. He joined Imax in March 2001 and previously served as executive vice-president of production at MGM/United Artists.

Veronika Kwan-Rubinek, President of international distribution, Warner Bros
Kwan-Rubinek is one of the most respected Hollywood executives in the international arena, having presided over the strategising and implementation of such hits as The Dark Knight, the Harry Potter franchise and The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button, to name a few. With fellow executives she is orchestrating this summer's release of Harry Potter And The Half-Blood Prince.